Money Skill #30: Signal detection


Have a look at the SG Earnings Report for 3/6/99 where I wrote: "It also means, at least in some respects, that it's prudent to not trust the SG people. Does this mean that I think the game should be abandoned? Not at all! I think the SG people are most resourceful in "keeping the game going" and the probability is high that a great deal of money can still be made by playing the game. However, I also think that it's a very risky game indeed and needs to be played very cautiously."

There was no doubt in my mind at that time that the SG people were providing fake sales volume numbers. That was a warning signal to me, a red flag. After that, my main focus was to get as much cash as possible out of the game. Another big red flag from SG came around Sept/Oct '99 with excessive payment delays -- two months or more between the time a withdrawal was requested and the date the payment was received. This indicated cash-flow problems. Another red flag is a declining level of customer service. There are forums for many programs were warning signals tend to appear when a program enters a phase of decline or breakdown.

For stocks there are buy signals and sell signals. Green flags and red flags. When I originally checked out SG it was all green flags. Same with WHP and WQNS. At this time (4/28/2000) there are still no red flags for WHP and WQNS.

It's very easy to identify and fall in love with a stock or program that's making money for you. See Money Skill #18. That can be dangerous because it may blind you to red flags.